I sell bags with 26 letter variations (A to Z). I'm pushing SKU "M" (the most popular letter) for a main keyword using exact match SP ads. I get about 10 orders a day from that keyword, but only 2 of them are for M – the other 8 are for other letters like C, D, E, because people click the ad on M but then pick a different letter.

A keyword tool (like Helium 10) says I need around 80 orders over 8 days (10/day) to get to page 1 for this keyword. But M only gets 2 direct orders a day.

My questions:

  1. With only 2 direct orders for M per day (plus 8 indirect on other variations), can M ever get to page 1 organically? What should I change in my ad setup?

  2. When someone clicks the ad on M but buys C, does M get any keyword credit? If yes, any rough idea how much – like 10%? 30%? I'm trying to figure out how many "effective" orders M is really getting and how many more direct orders I need.

Would love to hear from anyone who's dealt with variation keyword attribution. Thanks.