Launching a non‑standard product in a small subcategory – thoughts on my plan?

Your biggest advantage right now is price. Use it to boost conversion early.
But make sure:

• Vine reviews come in at 5 stars and decent quantity (30+).
• Your listing clearly shows differences from competitors – even small ones. Don't just copy.
• All conversion stuff (images, A+, reviews, price) is solid before you drive traffic. Otherwise you'll just burn ad spend.

One more thing: don't rush the price increase. Watch your conversion and organic rank before jumping to $24.88. Sometimes staying at $19.99 for a few extra weeks builds a safer foundation.

A couple of things you might be missing.
First, that suggested bid from the tool is for the whole category, not per keyword. Your actual CPC will depend on your listing quality, conversion rate, and sales history.
Second, the 6% conversion rate from Product Opportunity Explorer is for search terms across the category. It's okay for non‑standard products, but not great. Still, demand seems decent.
Before you go all in, ask yourself:

• How many sellers in the top 100 are doing a "curated multi‑ASIN" strategy vs focusing on one single ASIN? You need to know if a lightweight portfolio can realistically hit 50 units a month (or a day). Check their ad history and keyword count. I doubt many of them are doing a side‑project launch – they're probably all‑in on one product.
• Run the numbers: how many units do you need to sell to hit your profit goal? What's your ad budget? Inventory plan?

For a solid start (no shortcuts): get 3‑5 direct reviews (careful with TOS), make an unboxing video, run Vine for 10‑30 units, get A+ content. Build link quality first. Then treat it like a serious product, not a test.

Honestly, this looks doable. Top 100 at 50 units/month is a low bar. 6% conversion is solid for a non‑standard product. And even $3 profit at $14.99 gives you room to test.
Here's what I'd do (a bit aggressive but it works for small categories):
Pricing – skip the slow ladder.
Don't do $14.99 → $19.99 → $24.99 step by step. Just stay at $14.99 until you hit 100‑200 total units, then jump straight to $24.88. Why? The #1 seller already proved people will pay $24+. You don't need to hold their hand.
Differentiation on a copycat product (yeah we all do it sometimes):

• Upgrade packaging. First impression matters.
• Throw in a cheap accessory – $0.50-1 cost.
• Offer +3‑6 months warranty.

Small stuff, but it helps justify a higher price.
Ads – focus fire.
Don't waste money on auto campaigns. Pull the top 20 converting keywords from your main competitors (use Helium 10 or Jungle Scout). Put 70% of your budget into exact match on those. Use the other 30% to test new terms. At 6% conversion, buyers know what they want – no need to educate them.
Vine – don't drop all at once.
Split into 3 batches:

• Batch 1: 10‑15 units, highlight feature A
• Wait 5 days
• Batch 2: 10‑15 units, highlight feature B
• Wait 5 days
• Batch 3: the rest, highlight feature C

This spreads out reviews and looks more natural.
Inventory – two batches.
First batch: 200 units. Test for 2 weeks. If sell‑through >15%, order 500 more and time them to arrive when you have ~20% of first batch left. Don't run out of stock.
Seasonal timing:
If this category has seasons, launch in the off‑season – lower competition, cheaper clicks – and build rank slowly for the peak.
Milestones to expect:

• Month 1: top 200 BSR
• Month 2: top 100 BSR
• Month 3: 40% organic orders

Good luck. Let us know how it goes.