I’ve been selling on Amazon for years as a solo small‑timer, never really breaking through.

I scraped by during the pandemic, but the last two years I’ve gone all‑in on two launches—both ended in serious losses.

Now I’m at a real crossroads, trying to pick a path for the next 5–10 years.

I have family, bills, and can’t afford to chase random wins anymore. I need something that builds long-term, not just burns cash.

My Recent Struggles (Real Numbers)

2023 Launch – Home Goods Niche

  • Cost: ~$7 per unit, 1kg

  • Price: $29.99

  • Sent 2,000 units upfront

  • Peak ad spend: $400–$500/day

  • ACoAS during launch: 40–50%

  • Peak sales: ~50 orders/day

Why it crashed:

  • Return rate held at 15% even at scale

  • Couldn’t raise price to offset costs

  • Even at 100 orders/day, no real profit

  • Total loss: thousands in inventory + ad spend

2024 Launch – Niche Tool Product

  • Cost: ~$7, 1.5kg

  • Price dropped from $49.99 → $39.99 → $30+

  • Steadily hit 30+ orders/day after 3 months

  • Total invested: ~$28,000

  • Gross profit in 6 months: ~$5,000

  • Cash flow (excluding inventory): -$14,000+

The brutal truth:

Even “improved” products get copied immediately.

Competitors flood in with similar or slightly better versions.

Ad wars and price wars make sustainable profit nearly impossible.

ROI just isn’t there for small sellers anymore.

Why I’m Pessimistic About Long-Term Amazon

  • Launch success rate keeps falling. Used to be 1 in 3; now it’s 1 in 10.

  • High-margin window shrank from 1–2 years to 3–6 months, if that.

  • Big capital, brands, and aggressive sellers dominate.

  • Small operators with limited budgets can’t compete long-term.

  • Better ads or listing tweaks won’t fix the core math.

My Two Paths Forward

Path A: Go Deep on Product & Supply Chain

  • Double down on vertical niches, dig into negative reviews, solve real pain points.

  • Partner with manufacturers to develop custom products.

  • Invest small in development, share profits based on contribution.

  • Launch on Amazon not to profit fast, but to build a strong, proven listing.

  • Expand to other platforms, with a big focus on Temu.

I believe Temu could overtake Amazon in 3–5 years simply because low prices drive consumer behavior.

With real factory support, I’d finally have a defensible edge.

Path B: Start Fresh on TikTok Shop

  • A partner can set up local entities, accounts, and full logistics (non-SE Asia).

  • I’d learn TikTok from zero.

  • Logic: It’s still early for social commerce, similar to how domestic short‑form platforms grew.

  • I’m willing to invest 1–2 years to learn and build.

But I have zero experience, and I’m not convinced it’s the right bet.

My Questions

  1. As a small, experienced but underfunded seller, which path is smarter for the next 5 years?

  2. Is product & supply chain a more sustainable long-term play than chasing new platforms?

  3. Is TikTok Shop worth starting from scratch at this stage for a solo operator?

  4. Anyone who’s done both Amazon and Temu/TikTok—what’s your honest advice?

No fluff, no guru talk. Just real seller experiences appreciated.